You need a measure of variance to perform that kind of estimate. There's scenarios where 98% of results land within 3-5% of a value, and the 14% is extremely unlikely. And scenarios where the variance is high, and it's much more likely. (you can also be wrong about what you think the variance is)
As far as I'm aware these poll results have (roughly) a normal distribution, right now the spread between the two extremes in polls with sufficiently high 'N' to be taken into account in most reports differ by 19%.
