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I’m not sure: when I was in high school / university it was well understood that places like Florida would be under water and unlivable by now.

Already then you could find this exact article title in a dozen publications per year, especially in academic publications. Al Gore made a third career out of it.

It was alarmist and too soon then but it’s not alarmist and too soon now?

Nobody upvotes an article titled “Things are about 0.5% more concerning than they were two decades ago”



> I’m not sure: when I was in high school / university it was well understood that places like Florida would be under water and unlivable by now.

This doesn't seem plausible - the worst-case predictions for sea level rise by the end of the century are around 2m.

That would certainly be bad for Florida, but like 80% of the population lives higher than 2m above sea level, so it certainly wouldn't be unliveable.


A beautiful island archipelago with heaps of cool snorkeling in the ruins just below the surface.

I'd note that "under water" isn't the only issue at hand.

Florida's homeowners insurance industry has largely collapsed in recent years.

Rising sea levels can impact fresh water supplies (https://www.wusf.org/weather/2024-11-27/trillion-dollar-hidd...).

> Up to 70% of residents between North Carolina and Florida, and a trillion dollars in property, could be impacted by the end of the century with just over three feet of sea rise. South Florida represents the vast majority of that risk, with about 7.5 million people and $750 billion dollars in property expected to face increasing risks as groundwaters rise, the study found.

Power failures get scarier in high temp, high humidity scenarios, too. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature)


Thwaites Glacier and the glaciers locked behind it are predicted to raise sea levels by 3 metres in the next 50 years. And that's just one source -- it doesn't include Greenland's glaciers, other parts of Antarctica, and the expansion effect of warming the ocean water.

Florida is particularly vulnerable because it's porous. We could build sea walls around NYC to protect it, but that wouldn't work well for Florida.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5wB2ur1S2w

JV00 4 hours ago [hidden]

Take a walk up the alps, compare to pictures from 20 years ago and see for yourself

> I’m not sure: when I was in high school / university it was well understood that places like Florida would be under water and unlivable by now.

I don't doubt that is your recollection, but nobody back then was predicting it would happen in 20 years. The time frames given were much longer. But, the vibe was definitely that we need to wake up and do something right now, because by the time climate change hits real hard it will be too late to avert the calamity.


In 1992 Al Gore’s book said 60% of the population of Florida will have to relocate due to flooding. He didn’t mean in 100 years.

The actual quote is a little more circumspect than you portray it to be.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/free-expression/al-gores-long-an...

> The then-senator claimed that “according to some predictions”—no specifics were offered—“in the next few decades,” “up to 60 percent of the present population of Florida may have to be relocated.”

It's possible to be right on the substance and wrong on the timing. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry 's investor revolt.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/floridas-private-home-insuran...

> Active private home insurance policies in Florida declined by 78% over roughly a decade, with the state's insurer of last resort skyrocketing to 63% of the market share, as reported by PRNewswire and republished on Yahoo. That is a dramatic pullback in a state where storm risk has long shaped the housing market.


Some were predicting it, and those predictions got a lot of publicity.

https://www.breitbart.com/environment/2019/09/20/nolte-clima...




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